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Reading the tea leaves...

David Crawford - 10 March 2010

After a few poor days on the Absolute Return fund I am left nursing my losses and analysing whether my positioning is correct. I have moved to a net short position with a bias towards being short cyclical stocks including mining stocks.

When I think back to the beginnings of the stock market fall in 2007, it went something like this. The smart money went short when most of the market was still buying. The problems of over-leverage and a weakening housing market were apparent to all, but most market participants said that it would be an isolated event and would only affect the US sub-prime sector. Then the market started to fall...

Next it was apparent that the contagion was spreading. The smart money could smell a recession and kept selling, but the rest of the market said "yes there are things to worry about but all our companies are still trading well and forecasts are not being downgraded." The market kept falling....

Then it became apparent that a recession was highly likely. The smart money could smell rescue fund raisings and a slowdown in export led Asia so they kept selling (albeit in a more focused manner) but the rest of the market said it looked like a soft landing and the emerging markets would be immune. The market kept falling...

Finally everybody realised that things were truly awful. The smart money knew how bad it was and thought that bail-outs would be needed; they started buying as the rest of the market panicked and capitulated after huge losses. The market started moving up.

The market has kept moving up ever since and in January 2010 markets were up 50-100% from their lows (although still 25% below the 2007 peak). The smart money that bought aggressively has made some huge returns (Barclays up 600% in 6 months etc). We then saw financials and some cyclical stocks make highs in October which have not yet been surpassed. The miners, after having a great run into New Year, fell sharply but have now recovered most of those losses.

Given the above it would seem that the time to sell is when it is reasonably apparent that things are going to get worse in 6-18 months time, even if things are OK in the short term. One fellow manager I rate said the best fund managers are those that can move through the gears quickly. Once everybody believes things are going to turn down, then the best short money has been made.

My current thesis is that there is a chance we will go back into recession in 6-18 months. The huge debt burden has simply been shifted to governments. If they want to cut the burden then they will need to cut spending which will slow their fragile economies. The alternative is to try to inflate their way out but that will ultimately be disastrous for equities (it just might take a bit longer...) On top of this, I believe that the consensus may be too bullish on China which is intricately linked to the problems in the West.

Given that backdrop I can currently find more stocks where I think the risk reward is better on the short side than the long side. The million dollar question for me is - am I too early? In reality, it may be too early although I do not think markets will race upward even if my bearish view does not come to pass. 

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